The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced global passenger traffic results for March showing that demand – measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) – rose 5.3 per cent, compared to the same month last year. Capacity grew slightly faster at 5.9 per cent which pushed the average load factor down by half a percentage point to 79.6 per cent.
March performance shows a moderate slowdown on the year-on-year growth rates recorded in January (7.2 per cent) and February (8.6 per cent) even after adjusting for the leap-year impact in February. Demand for international traffic grew significantly more quickly (6.2 per cent) than that for domestic travel (3.7 per cent).
“While in line with long-term trends, demand growth in March represented a slow-down compared to January and February. It is premature to say whether this marks the end of the recent very strong results. We do expect further stimulus in the form of network expansion and declines in travel costs. However, the wider economic backdrop remains subdued,” said Tony Tyler, director general and CEO, IATA.
International Passenger Markets
March international passenger demand rose 6.2 per cent compared to March 2015, which was a decline compared to the 9.1 per cent increase in February. Airlines in all regions recorded growth. Total capacity climbed 6.9 per cent, causing load factor to slip 0.5 percentage points to 78.5 per cent.
Asia Pacific airlines’ traffic rose six per cent in March compared to the year-ago period; however, capacity increased 7.8 per cent, which caused load factor to slide 1.3 percentage points to 77.4 per cent. Key routes within Asia, across the Pacific and to the Middle East grew strongly in the opening months, although Asia to Europe routes lagged behind.
European carriers saw March demand climb 5.5 per cent over March 2015. Capacity rose 5.4 per cent and load factor edged up 0.1 percentage points to 80.8 per cent, highest among regions. The largest routes, including between the UK and Germany, and to and from Spain, have seen strong growth this year. It is considered too soon to know how the terrorist attacks in Brussels will affect demand.
Middle East carriers experienced a 12 per cent rise in demand in March, which was the largest increase among regions. Capacity increased 13.6 per cent, however, and load factor dropped 1.1 percentage points to 76.5 per cent.
North American airlines’ traffic climbed 0.7 per cent in March compared to the year-ago period, the slowest pace since April 2013. Carriers here have been concentrating their efforts on the larger and stronger domestic markets. Capacity rose just 0.6 per cent and load factor was flat at 80.5 per cent.
Latin American airlines had a 7.9 per cent increase in traffic in March, down from a 10.4 per cent increase in February, suggesting the upward trend in business-related international demand has softened. Capacity climbed 6.3 per cent, causing load factor to surge 1.2 percentage points to 78.5 per cent.
African airlines continued to enjoy strong demand, with traffic up 11.2 per cent compared to March 2015. The turnaround after several difficult years coincides with expansion of long-haul networks by the region’s carriers. Capacity rose 9.7 per cent, and load factor strengthened to 66.6 per cent, up 0.9 percentage points.
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic demand rose 3.7 per cent in March compared to March 2015, a dramatic slowdown from the leap year-aided 7.8 per cent growth recorded in February. This was driven primarily by performance in the two largest markets, the US – which accounts for two of every five domestic passengers – and China. Domestic capacity climbed 4.3 per cent, and load factor retreated 0.4 percentage points to 81.6 per cent.
India’s domestic market grew by 27.4 per cent in, while load factor rising by 3.7 percentage points to 83.1 per cent.
“In just under a month, Dublin will become the focus of the global air transport industry, when the 72nd IATA Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit takes place there, on June 1-3. Europe is the world’s largest international market in terms of traffic flown by its carriers. And aviation supports 12 million European jobs and 4.1 per cent of the continent’s GDP. But aviation could do much more if governments would address the triple whammy of high taxes, overly-complex and punitive regulations, and inadequate and inefficient infrastructure. Making Europe an easier place to do business will help aviation deliver even greater benefits to the economy,” said Tyler.
