IATA’s global passenger traffic data for June 2016 showed that demand measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) has increased by 5.2 per cent compared to the same peroid last year. This was up slightly from the 4.8 per cent increase recorded in May. However, the upward trend in seasonally-adjusted traffic has moderated since January. June capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) increased by 5.6 per cent, and load factor slipped 0.3 percentage points to 80.7 per cent.
“The demand for travel continues to increase, but at a slower pace. The fragile and uncertain economic backdrop, political shocks and a wave of terrorist attacks are all contributing to a softer demand environment,” said Tony Tyler, director general and CEO, IATA.
Domestic passenger markets
Demand for domestic travel climbed 5.7 per cent in June compared to June 2015, while capacity increased 4.3 per cent, causing load factor to rise 1.1 percentage points to 83.2 per cent. All markets reported demand increases with the exception of Brazil.
India continued to lead all markets with a 23.3 per cent rise in domestic traffic, propelled by strong growth in real consumer spending as well as by the fact that airlines are adding airport pairs and frequencies.
Australia’s airlines have been operating fewer frequencies and down-gauging aircraft in recent months, contributing to a 3.6 per cent decline in capacity. The result is that load factor surged 4.9 percentage points to 79.4 per cent on a 2.8 per cent increase in traffic,
“The latest figures show that aviation and aviation related tourism delivers US$ 2.7 trillion in economic impact and supports some 62.7 million jobs worldwide. It is a powerful force for good in our world. It is too soon to know whether recent terrorist attacks will have a long-term negative influence on demand, nor what will be the impact of Brexit and the events in Turkey. But it is vital that governments recognise and support aviation’s ability to contribute to global economic well-being and better understanding across cultural and political borders,” said Tyler.
International passenger markets
June international passenger demand rose 5.0 per cent compared to June 2015. All regions recorded growth, led by airlines in Latin America. Capacity climbed 6.4 per cent, causing load factor to slide 1.1 percentage points to 79.4 per cent.
Asia Pacific airlines’ June traffic increased 8.2 per cent compared to last year. However, most of the growth relates to the strong upward trend in traffic seen in the final months of 2015 and into 2016, with June demand barely higher than in February. Capacity rose 7.3 per cent and load factor inched up 0.6 percentage points to 78.2 per cent.
European carriers saw demand rise 2.1 per cent, the smallest increase among regions. Capacity climbed 3.4 per cent and load factor slipped 1.1 percentage points to 83.3 per cent.
Middle Eastern carriers posted a 7.5 per cent traffic increase in June, which was down on the double-digit growth recorded earlier in the year. In part this could be owing to the timing of Ramadan, which tends to depress traffic growth Capacity rose 14.3 per cent, which caused load factor to dive 4.4 percentage points to 69.9 per cent.
North American airlines’ demand rose four per cent compared to June a year ago, which was up on the 0.5 per cent year-on-year growth recorded in May. Capacity climbed 4.7 per cent, causing load factor to dip 0.6 percentage points to 84.3 per cent, still the highest among regions.
Latin American airlines experienced an 8.8 per cent rise in demand compared to the same month last year, suggesting that carriers there have flown out of the soft patch seen in the first quarter. Capacity increased by 5.2 per cent and load factor rose 2.7 percentage points to 82.4 per cent.
African airlines’ traffic climbed 4.7 per cent in June, an indication that the strong upward trend in demand that began in the second half of 2015 has paused. Capacity rose 7.4 per cent, with the result that load factor slipped 1.7 percentage points to 64.4 per cent, lowest among regions.
